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EURUSD: euro going strong on Good Friday

The European currency locked in gains on Thursday, April 1, up 0.39% to 1.1776. Buyers pared early losses, pushing up the price action from 1.1713 to 1.1780 (+67 pips). The single currency came under pressure from crosses over EU lockdowns, but shook off negativity due to weakening of the US dollar across the board ahead of the long Easter weekend.

The EURUSD pair gyrated up and down after the release of US macro data. The US manufacturing PMI unveiled a strong reading, the highest in over 37 years. The ISM manufacturing index surged to 64.7 in March (vs. 61.3 expected). Jobless claims for the week ended March 27 came in higher than the median consensus, totaling 719,000. Ahead of today’s payrolls report, the uptick in claims is a negative factor for the dollar.

Today’s macro agenda (GMT+3)

  • 15:30 US: unemployment rate and non-farm payrolls (consensus figure is calling for 550,000-650,000)

Current outlook

Trading in oil, equities and metals is offline today in observance of the Good Friday holiday. Players now await the release of the US nonfarm payrolls report. In line with the median forecast, the US economy is expected to create 550,000-650,000 new jobs in March. If the reading surpasses 750,000, the dollar is likely to move higher amid a thin market.

At the time of writing, the euro was trading at 1.1779. The resistance level is in the range of 1.1795-1.1810. The euro has been under pressure since March 25 as it is being sold in the main EURGBP cross as market participants are betting that the UK economy will recover more rapidly than the Eurozone’s.

Given that FX volumes are thin today due to the closure of trading floors in various parts of the world, sharp swings can be expected after the NFP report comes out.  In the upshot, the price action may well deviate from the current level of 1.1779 by 50-60 pips in either direction.

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